William
Eckhardt is a very famous futures trader. He, along with
Richard Dennis, set up the so-called Turtle Traders. Eckhardt
runs the Eckhardt Trading Company, which is a large and long lived Managed
Futures fund. The
monthly returns for their Standard programme are available on
the internet, and I have taken a copy of that data for analysis.
Our regression of the returns of this fund onto the dynamic trading risk factor
give an α of 0.88 ± 0.34 %/month, with a p-Value
of 1%; and, a β of 0.10 ± 0.17, which is 5.4σ from
unity. These estimates seem to present us with the conclusion that Eckhardt is
doing something different to the activities of typical hedge funds. Since most
futures funds are trend followers, who do not do much in-and-out
trading but work on the assumption that commodity prices follow gross
macroeconomic trends, it is plausible that the risk factor they are exposed to
is different to that of more typical hedge funds.