Same analysis, different stock. For full disclosure: I used to work in the Process Driven Trading group at Morgan Stanley. I traded Eurodollar Futures based on quantitative models, until I left in January 2000 (which is before this analysis starts, not that I had any significant impact on their top or bottom lines). I held MS options and stock until October, 2007. Since then I have traded MS both long and short.

Morgan Stanley's regressions tell a similiar story to those for Goldman Sachs; however, in this case the alpha is -2%/month and the beta is 4. These numbers are consistent both pro and per crisis, as they are for Goldman. The regression results are here, and charts below.

The forecast return for February, 2009, is 1.56%.